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The Spring, 2000 SOL data showed up on the State Education Dept web site on October 11, 2000. With the full dataset we can compare Richmond with other jurisdictions.
This web page looks at the third grade. We also have analyses of the Fifth Grade, Eighth Grade, and High School data.
For a start, let's look at 3d Grade English. The data here are % pass rates by school division by subject. According to the web site, these are unadjusted scores (include special ed students et al. whose scores will be removed to determine whether the schools will be accredited). With that caveat, here are the scores. Richmond is the red curve. The Richmond suburbs are green, differentiated as indicated by the colors and shapes of the points. The blue curves are the urban jurisdictions that are in the SOL cellar with Richmond (albeit their taxpayers are getting their lousy performance for about $2,000 per student less than we are paying in Richmond).
Pity poor Petersburg, the only jurisdiction we get to brag on.
We can get some insight into these numbers by extrapolating the Richmond numbers to see when they will reach the level (70) necessary for accreditation. In this case, the answer is 2027.
Note, please, that all schools are required to meet the 70 criterion by 2007. Note also that a division average of 70 does not mean that all the schools in the division will be accredited, just that the average score meets the requirement.
Thus we see that, even with this relaxed view of the requirement, Richmond at the current rate will need over 25 years to meet the accreditation requirement for third grade English!
Here is another view of the change. This graph shows the score change from 1998 to 2000 as a function of the '98 score for all the Virginia jurisdictions. Thus we see the state score (the gold square) started at 54.7 and improved by 6.0 points. Richmond (the red square) started way behind at 35.0 and improved by only 2.3 points. That is, dismal and not catching up. The green points are the suburban jurisdictions, Chesterfield, Hanover, Henrico, and Goochland; the red points are our sister cities in the SOL basement, Danville, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk, and Petersburg.
You'll notice that two of the cellar jurisdictions (Norfolk and Suffolk) are catching up to the state average. Richmond, unfortunately, is not.
Third grade math is only slightly better:
The extrapolated date for the Richmond average is 2014. Graphically, here is the overall change:
Third grade history and science again show Richmond trailing everybody but Petersburg, but at least we see some progress.
Note that the nice improvement in third grade science in 2000 made that the only Richmond third grade score that improved more than the statewide average (albeit only by a couple of points). That is, third grade science is the only third grade SOL that is moving to catch the statewide average; all the others are similarly dismal and all the others are falling behind.
The accreditation standard for these two subjects is 50 (the 70 criterion applies to all other English, math, science, and history/social science SOLs at all grade levels) and, at the present rate, Richmond can expect the division average to reach that level in 2001.
The following graphs show the SOL changes from '98 to '00 for Richmond grade schools: The red diamond is the Richmond average; the gold square is the state average; green is Ginter Park; cyan is Fox; magenta is Fisher; and blue is Munford.
Note that Ginter Park (green) is behind even the dismal Richmond average. In science GP beat both the Richmond and the State increase and (slightly) also in math. Elsewhere, there is nothing at our near-neighborhood school to inspire optimism.
Of course, our new neighborhood school, Holton, has only been open one year so it doesn't appear on those graphs. Here are the raw numbers:
GR 3 ENGLISH GR 3 MATH GR 3 HISTORY GR 3 SCIENCE 1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000 STATE 54.7 61.4 60.7 63.5 67.8 71.3 48.9 62.5 65.1 63.0 68.5 72.6 Richmond 35.0 40.1 37.3 40.3 40.6 44.2 27.2 34.2 40.5 36.5 35.1 48.4 HOLTON 39.0 47.6 38.6 54.2 That is, Holton is slightly ahead of the Richmond average except in third grade history, where it is slightly behind. In sum, about as dismal as the citywide average.
Dr. Williams says the growth of the SOL scores makes him "extremely optimistic." Of course, if your job depended on improving these awful scores, you also would find reason for optimism. In contrast, if you are a taxpayer you probably should be wondering why we spend so much money for schools that do so badly.
You can follow the links for the fifth grade, eighth grade, and high school scores.
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Last updated 02/24/02
Please send questions or comments to John
Butcher