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The 99 Stanford testing data are on the State Education Dept web site.
The State people have been bragging about the improvement between 98 and 99. They claim it validates the SOL program. Let's look at some of the data.
First, here are the Statewide data for '98 and '99:
Year Grade TOTAL READING TOTAL MATHEMATICS LANGUAGE 99 4 52 57 57 99 6 59 62 53 99 9 60 55 50 98 4 50 53 54 98 6 58 58 51 98 9 58 54 48 We see that statewide these scores improved at each grade level and for every subject. There's no telling whether the SOLs were responsible for any of this but there is a strong post hoc inference.
The Richmond data are another matter entirely. Let's look first at the percentage of students taking the test:
Division 98 99 Difference Grand Total CHESTERFIELD 97.8% 96.5% -1.3% 97.1% HENRICO 95.1% 93.6% -1.4% 94.4% RICHMOND 89.9% 86.0% -3.8% 88.0% VIRGINIA 95.1% 94.3% -0.8% 94.7% These are averages for the three grades. Notice that Richmond was 5% behind the average and it dropped almost another 2% behind.
QUIZ: Which kids will cut the test, those who expect to do well or those who expect to do poorly? And that will bias the Richmond scores by __increasing __decreasing them?
Right. Let's see what those increased Richmond scores looked like. First Reading:
As you see, the Richmond scores are dismal. And here is the change between 98 and 99:
Statewide reading improved at every grade level. Same in Chester. In Henrico, Fourth and Sixth grades held constant while Ninth Grade improved nicely. Richmond dropped 2% at every grade level. (Remember, this is with a self-selected group of poor test takers at home). In sum: The Richmond scores were awful and they got worse.
Next, Math:
Statewide and in Chesterfield, math improved at every grade. In Henrico, they dropped a point in the Sixth Grade and improved nicely in Ninth. In Richmond, they held in Fourth and Ninth, and dropped a point in the Sixth Grade. Overall, bad and getting slightly worse.
Next, Language:
The only thing you can say for Richmond is the scores didn't get worse in the Fourth and Ninth grades. But they were awful to start with.
The really surprising thing here is that we are not hearing the enraged howls of the citizenry. Neither do we hear of a crash program to improve the Richmond schools. For sure the first step to fixing the schools is to realize that they are broken. Until we do that, clearly and explicitly, we must expect that the system will continue to fail its customers.
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Last updated 02/24/02
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Butcher